An Evolving Game Simulating Approach to Perceive the Aptness of Quarantine and Social Distancing Policy to Mitigate Contagious Disease Transmission

Abstract

We concentrate on the suppression of infectious diseases that give rise to temporary or imperfect immunity. It introduces a stochastic SVEIR model with vaccinated (V) and exposed (E) populations, and incorporates quarantine and isolation (i.e., social distancing) as the two principal control strategies. The model is defined on non-spatial networks and includes two parameters — the latent carrier rate (ρ) and the rate of conveying (μ) to characterise transmission behaviour in more realistic terms. This paper assesses the synergy between vaccination, isolation and quarantine policies, accounting for both voluntary and imposed behaviors as well as for the resource costs of interventions. The aim is to decide on the best vaccination strategy to achieve elimination. The strategy considers both proactive (e.g., vaccination) and reactive (e.g., isolation/quarantine) measures if we want to minimize the impact of pandemic. This joint control approach is based on a mean field theory based on the SVEIR model.