Modeling Nipah Virus Transmission Dynamics with Behavioral and Geographical Isolation

Abstract

Nipah virus (NiV), a zoonotic pathogen known for its high mortality among infected individuals, remains a recurring health concern in Bangladesh. In contrast to its initial emergence in Malaysia, where pigs acted as linking hosts, the spread of the virus in Bangladesh is primarily driven by direct bat-to-human spillover, commonly associated with the seasonal intake of raw date palm sap exposed to fruit bats. Secondary human-to-human transmission further complicates containment efforts. An advanced compartmental QSEI model is presented in this work to examine the dynamics of NiV transmission in Bangladesh. The model incorporates a low-risk susceptible compartment to capture behavioral and geographical isolation. Sensitivity analysis highlights the transmission rate and the progression rate as key influencers of outbreak severity, while the validation of PRCC analysis verifies these parameter effects and demonstrates how targeted interventions can effectively suppress infection peaks. By integrating biological, behavioral, and ecological factors into a unified modeling framework, this study not only enhances understanding of NiV transmission dynamics but also lays the groundwork for future research on emerging zoonotic diseases in similar epidemiological landscapes.